Abstract
Climate change is placing unprecedented stress on ecosystems, leading to extreme biodiversity loss. In this context, estimates of population connectivity (i.e., the exchange of individuals between geographically separated populations, a main driver of population recovery) are essential for designing effective conservation strategies. In coastal ecosystems, connectivity is primarily driven by larval dispersal, which depends on ocean currents and species-specific life-history traits. Both factors vary over time, with long-term shifts driven by climate change and shorter-term fluctuations due to meteorological variability. Yet, most empirical studies estimate connectivity from single-time-point datasets, overlooking potential changes in time. This thesis aims to investigate the temporal variability of connectivity in coastal environments. Using Mediterranean gorgonians as model species, I reanalyzed historical samples (2008 to 2014) alongside recent ones (2022 or 2023), collected by size class as a proxy for age. All individuals were genotyped using ddRADseq, generating a time-structured genomic dataset spanning approximately 20 years and enabling the investigation of such temporal changes. As a prerequisite, in the first chapter, I used simulated SNP datasets to evaluate the reliability of commonly used methods to infer connectivity networks from genomic data, under different demographic and sampling scenarios. Worryingly, none of the tested methods proved reliable under the low sampling rates classically used in empirical marine studies. These findings informed the methodological choices in the next chapters. The second chapter investigates connectivity of Paramuricea clavata populations in the Ligurian Sea. The results reveal a strong genetic structure and an absence of first-generation migrants among samples, across all size classes and sampling years. These results indicate a lack of contemporary connectivity, challenging earlier assumptions of significant larval dispersal in this species, and showing that recovery after disturbance likely depend entirely on self-recruitment. The third chapter focuses on Eunicella singularis in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. I explore temporal variation of differentiation between population, genetic identity of the populations, and inter-population recruitment patterns. While the genetic identity of most populations stays stable over time, some low-density populations exhibit significant temporal shifts that influence broader patterns of genetic differentiation. Furthermore, first-generation migrants were detected in some size classes only, indicating episodic external recruitment events. These findings reveal the occurrence of rare, high-intensity connectivity events and emphasize their lasting impact, particularly in fragmented or declining populations, challenging the assumption of temporal stability underlying the usual snapshot studies. Overall, the thesis challenges the static view of marine connectivity by showing that, while population identities are often stable, rare connectivity events can have long lasting and significant effects. These events may become increasingly important under intensified climatic stress, habitat fragmentation, and mass mortality of adult populations. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of marine connectivity and emphasize the need for more temporally explicit frameworks in ecological research and conservation strategies.